From all good identities are taken 4/22:
Happy Easter everybody from Down Under,
What you are about to read is an attempt to make an educated guess on what earnings might be like in Q3/2000. It is going to be a little bit lengthy and is open to any discussion and criticism. The analysis is based on the Q1/2000 and Q2/2000 press releases, the Q2/2000 conference call, the pro forma data as stated on the Qualcomm web site, CDMA subscriber growth history (http://www.cdg.org/world/cdma_world_subscriber.html), statements by I Jacobs in the recent CNBC interview, radiowallstreet interview of Brian Modoff, DB Alex Brown and some educated guesses on my side. Wherever possible I try to quote the source, in some cases however I might forget to do so (please ask). The source will be included in {source}. I also try to clearly state, where I contributed a guesstimation by using a trailing [G] as in I think Qualcomm is going to buy Microsoft [G]Œ.
Before I start please allow me to make some initial remarks on what I think about the Q2 results. QCT numbers were lousy. I think, not even management envisaged such low numbers when they announced {Q1 press release} that ™shipments of its phone chips in the second quarter of fiscal 2000 MAY be lower than the first quarter of fiscal 2000™Œ [G]. After all, they missed by 23 %. If it hasn¡t been for the lucky coincidenceŒ, that they could book profits of 15M in Q2 for Globalstar gateway installations ¤ which apparently went life in Q2 ¤ {Q2 conference call} as well as undisclosed interest for Globalstar debt {Q2 CC}, Qualcomm would have had posted pro forma earnings of 25 [G], perhaps only 24[G] cents. QWS pre tax profit would have been reduced by at least 15M to 68M or less (unknown interest on G* debt). Although not devastating, I think we are lucky that QCOM had this ace up the sleeve. But all is not lost, this is almost) the only negative you will read in this post! |
