CLOWNS TO THE LEFT OF ME.. JOKERS TO THE RIGHT. Message Board

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Pastimes : CLOWNS TO THE LEFT OF ME.. JOKERS TO THE RIGHT.

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To: coug who wrote (59)	4/22/2000 1:45:00 PM
From: Topannuity	Read Replies (1) of 306

The more I think about Stack's seasonality ideas...the more I think his data oversimplifies what actually happens during these 2 periods. There may be several complete bottom-too-trough cycles during EACH of the 6 month periods. In other words, while the NET GAIN from mid-April to end-October may only be 3.6%, it is NOT a flat line with little price movement. prices may move up even 20-30% to a July high and then back down to mid-April levels by October... Nimble traders could effectively scalp large gains in any extended cycle. Same is true for the Nov. to April period. In fact this year the NAZ moved up from Nov thru January, then down 10% then up to a double top again in March. Stack's ideas are more apropros to buy and hold investors. His ideas seem to confirm that the ONE and only BEST TIME a year to deploy NEW BUY and HOLD dollars would be each year at the beginning of November..

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