How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 503.37

-1.6%

3:59 PM EST

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To: techtonicbull who wrote (42961)	4/22/2000 3:02:00 PM
From: SC	Read Replies (1) of 74651

Depends on how long your definition of long is. The overwhelmingly negative sentiment on this thread is certainly a bullish contrarian indicator. The fact that Intel and AMD are selling everything they can make is an outright bullish indicator. On the other hand, the uncertainty over the DOJ case and the generally overvalued stock market are bearish. I don't think that the DOJ thing will cause any lasting damage to shareholder value regardless of the remedies or reversal on appeal. If you remember what happened to ATT, the remedies were draconian. Whoever the judge was in that case maintained oversight for many years and the company was broken up into numerous pieces. ATT had to lease long distance lines to any competitor who wanted in at sweetheart rates. If you were an ATT stockholder with a 10 year time horizon and you held all the pieces you ended up doing quite well (this was a mature company, with the same sort of antitrust problems that microsoft faces today). On the other hand, the current valuations of the tech stocks, in general, is a real concern. It is quite possible that the market is 5 - 10 years ahead of itself with respect to these valuations. One thing is for sure, if MSFT gets down to the $20 that you have predicted I will put everything I have in MSFT common stock! At that level, it would be a screaming value play even discounting all the potential pile-on legal trouble. Steve

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