George thanks, but my Turnips expected the decline to be finished by Early April, and by now we should have been in the midst of a short rally fueled bu "excess liquidity" and good earnings. We got the good earnings for most of the reporters, and I think next week will add to this (notwithstanding MSFT which CC indicates weakness ahead) fire. So, except of the small misstep here in early April, the scenario laid out last November is still intact, a rally to the end of this month, at most another week after that (very little likelihood), then a decline which, IMHO, will test and possibly break April lows sometime in May to early June (probably late May). From there on I see clear sailing until at least election day, and I still have 13,500 as a peak on the DOW, and about 5200 (a marginal new high) on the NAZ. The real big bad bear, i do not see starting in full force until Late January early February next year. Mind you, that view means a lot of money can still be made in the six months period between the May June nadir and the apex sometime in the November/December time frame. Your small caps guys will be in favor, but many of the darlings of the street (including CSCO and few other "fairly" priced darlings) will surprise every one with valuations of 40 times twelve months trailing revenues.
Just IMTO, of course, and this opinion and $.25 might get you a cup of coffee.
Zeev |
