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Asia-Pacific E-Com to Hit $1.6T in 2004: Forrester
[April 20, 2000] According to Forrester Research, Inc., Asia-Pacific e-commerce will surge to US$1.6 trillion in 2004.
asia.internet.com
Buoyed by a combination of regional strengths, US-based Forrester Research, Inc. (Nasdaq: FORR), predicts that the region's countries will benefit from local e-commerce development efforts and tight links to international supply chains in a number of key industries.
These factors will make Asia-Pacific an important player in the global Internet economy, which Forrester estimates will reach US$6.9 trillion in 2004.
"Asia-Pacific enjoys a number of advantages that will accelerate its development as a major contributor to worldwide e-commerce," said Stuart D. Woodring, Forrester's vice president of research for emerging Internet economies. "The combination of pressure from global trading partners, falling trade barriers, and government enthusiasm for e-commerce will aggressively push the region into the Internet economy."
Forrester says that deep links to global supply chains will accelerate the region's adoption of e-commerce as industry leaders pull their trading partners online. 86% of Singapore's exports to the US, for example, are sold into the computing and electronics industries at the leading edge of online business trade.
Meanwhile, national commitments to infrastructure development and economic growth will create new opportunities throughout the region. The resulting e-commerce gains will be tightly linked to B2B trade in Asia-Pacific, with more than US$1.5 trillion of the region's total online sales linked to the B2B sectors.
Despite these advantages, e-commerce will not develop uniformly across the region. Online trade requires public policy support -- low barriers to trade, stable currencies, and flexible capital markets -- as well as a technology infrastructure to reach its full potential. These contributing factors are not equally present in the region's countries.
In Hong Kong, low trade barriers are accelerating online trade, while India's substantial tariffs are delaying its development. Meanwhile, China's role in the Internet economy will be hindered by its weak infrastructure. This disparity will make Asia-Pacific one of the last regions to reach full e-commerce maturity.
"Asia-Pacific will benefit greatly from the efforts of several e-commerce leaders," said associate analyst Matthew R. Sanders. "While Japan will dominate the region with US$880 billion in online sales in 2004, Australia, Korea, and Taiwan will each see more than 16% of their total sales conducted online."
Forrester estimates that e-commerce will account for 8.6% of worldwide sales of goods and services in 2004. The expansion of online trade, however, will be highly concentrated, with 12 countries representing nearly 85% of worldwide Net sales. The US will continue to be the global e-commerce leader with online sales reaching US$3.2 trillion in 2004. Western Europe will hit US$1.5 trillion with stronger B2C sales than Asia-Pacific. Plagued by infrastructure deficiencies, e-commerce will reach US$82 billion in Latin America while Eastern Europe, Africa, and the Middle East will contribute a combined US$68.6 billion in 2004.
For the its "Global e-commerce Approaches Hypergrowth" brief, Forrester examined the conditions underlying e-commerce growth in 52 countries. These conditions include the regulatory environment, technology infrastructure, connection to international supply chains, and existence of regional trading blocs. |
