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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company

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11:21 AM EST

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To: 100cfm who wrote (9051)	4/22/2000 11:52:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 13582

As Randall said, squabbling over the spoils is the reason for the disputes. Any technical merit for DS-CDMA [to use the latest jargon instead of W-CDMA] seems tenuous at best and at worst it is not as good as MC-CDMA. So it is then a matter of critical mass, territoriality, political support, chance of overturning patents, conning GSM people into waiting, playing 'chicken' with Q! and supporters, stuff like that. It will quickly become a network-effect argument and unit cost argument and application/technology support argument. Things like that. There is a tendency to use arguments like 'look how many support DS' as though this is a voting issue instead of a technical, economic and competitive argument. Interested parties voting for something doesn't make it better than a competitor's option. I haven't yet seen anything to tell me that the 1XRTT, HDR, MC2000 upgrade route isn't the most cost-effective. The timing of DS2000 compared with MC is important. NTT is calling their 2001 'W-CDMA' as though it is 3G. It is not! Real, 2mbps 3G won't be in the DS realm for half a decade or so and the top ASIC supplier will probably be QUALCOMM when it does appear. Ericy will be helping Q! on the parts where [WMolloy says] Q! is weak. Same as Q! helped Nokia on cdmaOne. I don't believe any service providers will be able to hang around waiting having bid nearly $40bn for UK 3G spectrum. GPRS will be everywhere in the GSM world. EDGE will not be good. HDR will be everywhere in the CDMA world. Then it will be a race for true 3G in about 2 or 3 years [with DS being about 2 years behind MC]. I suppose the W-CDMA which will be built [if it is] in UK will be a foundation which will convert to MC-CDMA if the 3G DS-CDMA option turns out to be a mirage. I suppose Vodafone will right now know that they are in an either/or situation in the UK. There is no way they would have bid so much if they didn't know what they can do over the next 3 years and what options they would have after that. All guesswork, Mqurice

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