Hola, polvito. Actually, I did make essentially the same post, not two weeks ago, but two months or so. I wish the new SI had the same search features the old one did, but alas I can't locate the post. It was on the qcom thread or this thread I think. I do recall that UF thought at the time I was overly concerned. Anyway, this is not to take credit, because I'm no better at prognostication than anyone else.
The other thing, I think my post was positive. There is too much doom and gloom around, which is a good sign of a bottom. I said the Naz might get to 2900, which is not that far away, but it ain't going to crash like the permabears say. No way. There is some bear whose column is linked on the home page saying Naz 1200 or so. And monkeys will fly out my butt. Of course, that guy is short everything, so he makes a killing at 1200. Wishful thinking, same as someone long saying Naz 8000.
A recession is coming, but we have lived through a lot of them, at least I have. The market will recover, and it will lead the economy, so expect the market to be stronger during the recession.
The Naz is back on a trend just a little above where it would have been without the bubble. The Dow and S&P are slightly below their trend lines. If the overall market decides the median or average stock is undervalued, the everything will go down. But those quoting average p/e's are no better than those using any other form of TA. I have yet to find an investor that actually bought a company based on discounted cash. It is all about perception, not reality. A stock is worth whatever someone is willing to pay. No more, no less. |
