RE: "Intel is not selling into the retail stores you frequent. It says nothing about Intel sales into the corporate market."
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Thread,
In the same breath, MS said OEM sales growth was only 5% because there was weak demand for business PCs. Meanwhile, Intel was saying demand was high. Why the conflict? I think this is the answer:
Per MS's CC, W2K Retail sales are strong, while OEM Sales are weak. This translates into: customers want to buy it (i.e. strong retail sales), but customers can't buy what can't be built (i.e. a chip shortage) and possibly some Y2K impact (i.e. customers already bought hardware last year) which together could make OEM sales weak. (But I really doubt Y2K is a real contributor since we didn't hear this out of Dell). Dell had mentioned Intel chip supplies as being an issue, so this, taken with Microsoft's comments about their OEM sales and Intel being a contributing factor, translates into healthy demand for chips and a chip shortage.
The bad news is it appears Intel is holding MS OEM Sales hostage. Ouch.
Back to Scumbria's point. Who would be your first PC customer if there was a chip shortage during the release of a new business OS? My guess would be corporate customers, not retail. Scumbria, that might explain why you're not seeing it in retail. They're probably in corporate.
That would also coincide with Ten's comments about why he knows they're building a lot, but he doesn't understand the lack of visibility in the channel. The corporate channel is significantly less visible than retail. I'm placing my bet that Intel is struggling to meet demand, it has impacted MS OEM sales, and that we are going to have a pretty good year if ASPs hold well and Nasdaq doesn't act up.
Happy Easter to those who celebrate Easter.
Best,
Amy J |
