AQUILA BIOPHARMACEUTICALS INC (AQLA) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : AQUILA BIOPHARMACEUTICALS INC (AQLA)

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To: Harry J. who wrote (23)	4/23/2000 4:30:00 PM
From: AurumRabosa	Read Replies (1) of 45

Just finished reading the info pack they sent me. They say that bovine mastitis has a $2 billion annual impact on the US diary industry. There's 10 million diary cows in the US and the average impact is $200/cow/year. In a Telegram & Gazette article (May'98) Dr Taunton-Rigby said: Quilvax-M, a treatment to control the inflammed-udder disease mastitis in diary cattle. Aquila hopes to start licensing trials of the treatment in animals later this year, and it expects the US market for treatment would be worth $300 million annually. I don't know if that's net or gross or what percentage participation of US diary cows is assumed. It seems reasonable that given the choice between a diary farmer paying $200/cow/year in damages (not to mention much aggravation) they'd be glad to pay $30-60/cow/year to inoculate their cows. Considering that their market cap is now only $33.5 million if they receive $300 million/year from Quilvax-M sales then they realize a P/S ratio of just 2 they could command a share price of about $70. Do other shareholders find this a reasonable projection? Even if they only get half of the $300 million then it's still close enough to a 10-bagger for me. Will Quilvax-M be administered once in a lifetime or annually? How many diary cows are there in the rest of the world? Will the US trial data be sufficient for approval in other countries? How much per dose of Quilvax-M and what portion flows through to AQLA? I was attracted to AQLA by listening to the audio feed from the BIO 2000 conference when I heard her talk about their CD1 technology. informedinvestors.com A patented lipid-presenting antigen system that would be the same for everybody as opposed to MHC I & II which vary greatly among the population. I think the potential for CD1 is long term and could be very huge. However, I've based my initial purchase of 10,000 shares on the near term prospects for Quilvax-M to make the cows & shareholders very contented.

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