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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures

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To: Tom Trader who wrote (41121)	4/23/2000 7:30:00 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 44573

Hi Tom, I'm not your new guru, Although I've been bullish for a long time,sold out to 85 % cash and here's where I miss being your guru.I don't think we are in a bear market yet.I think we have quite reasonably come back to support in the NAZ. Most often tests to support MUST momentarily be breached just for the panic factor to be real.I thought the Dow broke support harder than the NAZ did. The decline(in the NAZ) was more dramatic because the rise was as well. Theoretically a retest of the lows could occur at a higher level because the slope is admittedly quite sharp. I think that the final top will be led by the "Value" old tech in the DOW,lagged by the disappearing nets and led by the very profitable old tech of the NAZ.Last but not least new "breadth" will prove the rally by a final last leg blow off of the small/mid cap dogs. This has been a wonderful record setting bull.It will go out with the most dynamic of "all investor satisfying" bull traps.Final distribution requires this last leg. If the final top doesn't include the smallcap dogs - then look for the first signs of sector rotation ( false starts are ok ) and another round of the bull will become popular.Afterall the MOMO players who got out at the top, have to go somewhere!!! I've seen your excellent posts in the past and I just wanted you to know where you heard it first. ( VBG ) siliconinvestor.com Notice how the russell 2000 fell the least and could well be on the verge of passing up the compx? - indu and inx took it the hardest. Sort of a first second third and now fourth wave rally.After all as guru's withdraw equity from the topping market the only game in town affordable to play becomes the smallcap! JMHO Bob

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