impristine and el paradisio,
1. I never believed that anyone, even the brilliant gurus (sorry) or the purveyors of micro and macro economic theories, can predict anything with certainty. As such, I'd like to listen to predictions hoping to see a pattern of what most people believe will happen. For a long time the market is no longer about companies making money, it's a big psychological game. Hence, I'll believe the prediction that most people believe in, since that tends to become self-fulfilling.
2. Nothing in this market is an exact science, I now view it as a Big Casino. What happened in 99 was that some of us (including me) thought we understood the set of rules and got cocky. I don't think the set of rules apply anymore.
3. I can still remember when I had a 'balanced' stock portfolio. Remember those things? Banks, resources, autos, techs. As I keep rebalancing my portolio throughout to keep the winners and get rid of the laggards, by june of 99, I held only techs, and rode into 2000 with a big grin on my face.
Thought I was the smartest stock picker in the world. Turns out, I was just lucky. Damn! Really hate it when that happens. Only thing that saved me this time? Paranoia and selling most stocks for the wrong reason but at the RIGHT time. Intelligence sharp instincts had nothing to do with it. It was just paranoia and dumb luck.
here you said we might crash and we might go up...Nice call
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