Net Access Shifting To Cell Phones (04/20/00, 4:16 p.m. ET) By Robert Ristelhueber, EE Times
Smart cell phones will become the dominant means of accessing the Internet by 2004, when Web-capable phones will make up 79 percent of the unit volume of Internet appliances, according to a report by Semico Research.
Fat clients -- including PCs -- accounted for 90 percent of the $73.2 billion Internet appliance market last year. That figure is expected to drop to 44 percent of the market's value by 2004, slightly ahead of Web-capable phones, with 42 percent. But phones will dominate the market in terms of unit volume, Semico predicted in its report.
Unit volume of Web-capable phones will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 288 percent, from 800,000 to 703 million in 2004. Revenue will grow at a CAGR of 223 percent over the same period, from $200 million to $70.3 billion. The average selling price of phones will fall to $100, the report said.
Thin clients, in which all application, data processing, and storage take place on the network server, will gain rapid acceptance. The thin client Internet appliance market will experience a CAGR of 128 percent for units, from 200,000 in 1999 to 104 million by 2004, and 111 percent for revenue, from $160 million to $6.8 billion.
The report listed the cost, quality, and ease of use of the device; the cost and quality of the Internet connection; and the quantity and quality of the Internet content designed specifically for the appliances as key factors.
Cell phones and other types of handheld devices will probably converge into one product capable of playing digital music, displaying color video, allowing wireless e-mail and Internet access, and providing traditional functions. Casio and Siemens are expected to ship Windows versions of such products later this year, according to the report.
The Internet appliance market will grow at a compound annual rate of 18 percent, to $166.9 billion by 2004. Units, currently at 45.8 million, will show an 81 percent CAGR, to 887.2 million by that year, Semico predicted. |
