Echelon Forward Guidance
Kumar, I agree that Echelon has a very interesting technology. However, in my subjective opinion the stock is still significantly overpriced. I believe trailing twelve month revenues are now 42.44 million compared to one year ago revenues of 34.87 million. This is only a 21.7% year over year period revenue growth rate. And the company still has no profits.
I listened to last week's CC myself for guidance going forward. Stansfield said product revenues will grow about 30% year over year, plus or minus 10% in any given quarter. However, service revenue will decline about 20% on a year over year basis. If you put the two together, you come up with a projected annual revenue growth rate under 30%. Note: Product revenues are much more significant for ELON than service revenues.
At a price to sales ratio of 28.6 on Friday's close, Elon is priced similar to companies growing way faster who also have earnings. Two companies that come to mind are SEBL, which has 102% year over year revenue growth rate and price to sales ratio of 28.7 on Friday's close, and RFMD, which has a year over year revenue growth rate of 139%, and a price to sales ratio of 26 on Friday's close. Both these companies have trailing twelve month earnings of .60 cents per share compared to Elon's trailing twelve month loss of (.07) per share.
I am not trying to pile on the unfortunate people who may have paid way too much for this stock, but I have done some DD on this stock and I hope to make a purchase of ELON at much lower prices--- less than half of where it trades now. I have no idea whether the price will ever get there, but I will be watching. (For those of you feeling the pain of possibly paying too much, consider this: Last time I posted on this thread the stock price ran up about 30%.)
Regards, Huey |
