re: their future looks cloudy.
That's exactly why I am buying MSFT today, in preference to those other stocks.
A systematic error that investors make is to overweight recent news (last 12 months), compared to longer-term patterns (3+ years), in their decision-making. Longer-term patterns are always more reliable than short-term patterns. Over the longterm, MSFT had been one of the best-run companies in the world, and its stock has performed better than 99.9% of other stocks. I expect that pattern to continue in the future. Again, I mean the longterm. But Mr. Market is holding a nearly-50%-off sale on the stock, because of that "cloudy future". Yes, the future is cloudy. But only short-term.
I used exactly the same reasoning to buy out-of-the-money LEAPs in AMAT in 10-98, INTC in 6-98, SAP in 3-99. And I expect today's purchases to do just as well as those have.
In my wife's IRA, I just sold QQQ puts, and bought MSFT. Thinking of placing orders for MSFT 2002 LEAPs, at the money (which makes them as safe as owning the stock). |
