Angel...given your clarification about your margin assumptions...I gotta believe that Dell has .01/.02 in investment income as cushion (a la Intel/Microsoft...we'll see this going forward each quarter, IMO)...It would be absolutely disasterous for Dell to miss this quarter (I can't believe management would have slipped up again, so badly, so soon)...AND Dell's management has made at least a couple statements this month generally saying "all's OK"...something we didn't see in Q4 '00, or Q4 '99...quarter's of the famous "misses" (EPS, revenue respectively)..so, to come out and say they are missing....would be a huge credibility hit (and deserved, IMO)..
Even so, I think Dell has to make AT LEAST .16 (and really .17) from core ops (regardless of investment income)...to maintain any sort of momentum (in the stock)...AND they better say ALL the right things in the CC too....With .16 core, I think Dell will hang around .50 (and rightly so) for a while...
Next quarter, the comparison gets tougher....Last year Q2 was outstanding....19 cents (remember)....a great quarter...hard y-o-y comparison (although the next Q3/Q4 should be easy/beautiful to compare)...
Right now, the market is giving Dell the benefit of the doubt on its "internet strategy"....Meanwhile, Dell needs to get the PC growth house back in order, and quick...(especially Europe).. |
