Please read and comment:
<Happy Clappy comes riding into town on the bare back of a lost bull...>
Howdy y'all! I found this lonesome bull runnin' through town and I figured I'd jump on his back and show him the way home.
<The Porchsters look at the silly idiot sitting on the bare back of a huge prize winning Brahma Bull as he steers the beast past Voltaire's china cabinet.>
<Polvo looks for the coin slot because this animal looks to be a little bit bigger than the one outside the "5 & Dime Store" that he used to ride as a child, teenager, adult, and Senior Citizen.>
<Clappy pulls the undersized cowboy hat from his head and carefully gets off the bull. He ties the bull of to the porch railing and proceeds to gather the porchsters' attention.>
<Clappy steps up onto the soap box and blows into the microphone...>
Ffffuuuuuu,fffffuuuuu. (Sound of air being blown into microphone.)
<Clappy looks like he has something important to say...>
I just wanted to take this time to put on the line my personal thoughts about this market and it's direction.
I invite you all to do the same. If you reach down inside yourself, you'll find that you have an opinion as to where the market is headed. I ask you to put it on the line and tell us all what you think. Let it pour from your gut, through your fingertips, onto the keyboard and out into cyberspace.
I'd like to know each of your opinions.
Here is mine.
We are currently in a pseudo bear market.
What does this mean? I'm not sure. Here are my thoughts:
1. The Naz and Dow have enjoyed a long period of hyper-growth.
2. The NASDAQ deserved to run like crazy. However, it over reached it's boundaries. At the same time, the Dow was way over extended simply because it was made to keep up with the Naz. The Dow/NYSE simply could not keep up the frenzied pace. This is now putting pressure on the Naz.
3. The "New Paradigm" is continually being evaluated and measured to old standards. Equations are being applied that exist in normal markets. There is no way to measure the phenominal growth and potential valuation of the New Paradigm.
4. Time scales are being cut into fractions. Investors/speculators are trying their hardest to keep up with all the various changes in technology. A new tech company, who looks promising, is soon out done by another company before their product even reaches the shelve.
5. The expectations of many new tech companies are quickly being snuffed by the recent announcements of the newest companies. For example, we saw PHCM rocket like crazy for several months because of expected future valuations.
Today their technology is available, and is becoming widely used. However as a former stock holder and now a user of PHCM's WAP microbrowser, I'm left being less than impressed.
I'm already looking for the next phase of technology to beat it.
To me, voice will soon be an integral part of the internet and communication to computers. I am willing to pour a lot of money into corporations who will provide this. Yet, I'm beginning to wonder how long it will be before I'm less than impressed? Even though their values may be increasing, the hype factor will no longer be present. There are many other examples.
Why is QCOM losing value? Perhaps it's because its technology and expectations are being realized and are not growing as fast as the minds of the speculators who bought into them.
6. Speculators have been the hardest hit during this NASDAQ selloff. As their expectations grew and grew, so did their margin. These same speculators are being left with less than they ever expected. As margin calls continue to set in, where will the future speculation come from? Speculators are the ones who have been driving up the crazy valuations of these companies. If their available cash has been depleted, who will be left to bring upon the the next wave of rapidly rising stock prices?
7. I believe it may take some time to get this market back rolling again. The houses will help this along. However, with the absence of a lot of the speculators, it may not take off like it used to. Especially when we are heading into the slower summer months.
I'm beginning to believe, more money will be made by trading stocks than holding them for the next few months.
Technical Analysis is more valuable than ever. It appears to be a good way to to time some trades.
These are my thoughts. What are yours?
Where are we headed after this beaten down earnings season is over?
-Clappy
P.S. This being said, it's probably time for the bulls to run again. Every time I tend to see hindsight 20/20, is usually when the market takes off again.
I bought into this market today. In addition to two small trading stocks, I averaged down on CREE and bought some NTAP for longer term.
I have a small amount of cash left for any terrible sell offs.
I will not dip into margin more than 25%. I will not reach into this level until I hear people screaming and fighting on the message boards again. |
