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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 660.08

-0.8%

Nov 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: rfisher who wrote (47923)	4/24/2000 9:49:00 PM
From: David Lee Smith	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Yes, the market declined in January then rebounded. But it did so with less momentum suggesting a double top was forming. MomentuMonkey is not a short term technical indicator, but a combination of a valuation and momentum indicator. I will only turn postive if one or more of the following occur: S&P 500 earnings improve dramatically over estimates. Interest rates decline substantially Earnings momentum of the top 10 stocks in the S&P picks up dramatically Price momentum of the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 improves dramatically The US dollar increases substancially Or a combination of the above. But it can be used as a short term indicator. I have noticed that everytime the indicator shows a reading of less than -15%, the market tanks in the next few days. If you are a short term trader, I'd suggest you pay attention. After the close today, the model showed a -19% reading...its most bearish reading since I revised it!!

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