The FWB market potential is huge IMO. I see too many people focusing exclusively on the handset VCO side of Vari-L's business as the sole reason to buy. Basestation growth will track handset growth, much like wireline broadband access devices-set-top boxes, cable modems, DSL modems-create a need for more bandwidth in the core and at the edge. Back to FWB...the 80% market share number for GSM BS is high, but I think replicable in the L/MMDS markets. Newbridge is the top LMDS supplier now, Netro is in both LMDS and MMDS with lucent OEMing, Adaptive announces new contracts every few weeks, etc, etc...and Vari-L is inside each one. The rollout of FWB will accelerate in the near term (look at results from Netro, California Amplifier, Adaptive) and really kick in next year IMO (MCI Worldcom is still making equipmet decisions, while Sprint has done so to an extent).
Look at comapnies like C-CORnet, Harmonic, and Antec for signs of RF-optical strength. Charter just announced that they're upgrading something like 85% of their cable assets=good news for Harmonic (65% of optical systems in the deal) and Scientific-Atlanta (the majority of the remaining 35%)=good news for optical module suppliers like JDS Uniphase (reports tomorrow)=good news for Vari-L.
Disclosure--I'm cutting some Anadigics tomorrow and swapping in more Vari-L. |
