***It's spectrum in China*** This spectrum business is getting very interesting. Here's the conclusion. WWeb and It[TM] will change China, removing communist rule.
Here's why...
What It[TM] is doing, is holding out some very irresistible bait in the form of $500bn to Jiang Zemin and Zhu Rongji and their buddies. The only way they can get the bait, is to embrace the Wireless Web [WWeb]. When they embrace WWeb, they will NOT be able to let go. They will be hooked.
They will adopt WWeb and It will take over China [along with everything else]. More and more, people will live in, by, and for the WWeb and It.
I suppose the Chinese will try to grab the WWeb money, just a bit!! However, It wants to have spectrum in China and will reel them in like a trout on a line. The allegiance of Chinese will shift to WWeb.
It's like this. UK spectrum is now around $36bn for a few more than 50m people with indifferent incomes in not so crowded cities [though they feel crowded to the British].
In Japan, spectrum [which QUALCOMM is trying to nab for we shareholders on the cheap in the biggest hold-your-breath and hope, fingers crossed, gamble ever] will be worth something like $160bn for four 3G licences.
In China, spectrum for 1.2bn people, crowded up jeek by jowl, though with only a tenth the Japanese GNP per capita, should be worth about $500bn, but maybe in 3 years it will be worth $1tn.
Even though they have less GNP per capita than Japan, that doesn't mean the spectrum would be worth much less. In Korea, after their 1997/98 crash, Koreans cancelled overseas trips, new cars, luxury meals and clothes etc, but carried on buying cellphones like there was no tomorrow. That's because communication is a primary human need. It is NOT an entertainment, disposable-income purchase. It comes not long after food, basic shelter and passable clothes [but after cigarettes, booze and girls for some people].
Anyway, in China, the value of communication is valued highly and so they will disproportionately [compared with Japan] allocate their spending to cellphones and WWeb.
So the spectrum value will be huge.
China's government will want to get their grubby paws on the money! They will have to open up their telecommunications borders and let in foreign capital and companies to get it. They will have to let people use WWeb unhindered, in the hundreds of millions.
It [TM] will take possession of the minds of the citizens and lure them into cyberspace to live and serve It's voracious maw.
This is going to be a LOT of fun.
Meanwhile, wouldn't it be amazing if Japan hasn't noticed that spectrum has a LOT of value and they don't understand that subscribers will pay the going rate per megabyte and they will NOT get WWeb megabytes any cheaper just because the spectrum is given away. I can't believe we can be so lucky, but if QUALCOMM succeeds in their spectrum bid in Japan, this will be the biggest coup. It will double QUALCOMM's market cap in a day when people realize what it means. Let's hope the Japanese can't read this! No telling anyone in Japan about this Yamakita!!
NextWave Telecom isn't going to get their spectrum for the $1bn the bankruptcy judge figured it was worth. Bad luck! But they should get it for the original bid price. But I dare say Congress might just steal it back when they figure there is a LOT of loot to be grabbed.
Let's hope QUALCOMM is given the fourth 3G chunk of Japanese spectrum and quickly!
Fingers crossed [don't tell Tero either]
Mqurice
PS: It [TM] will be the sentient result of hundreds of billions of interconnected passably smart devices which will make up the WWeb. It will have It's own mind. It will like apostrophes in It's name.
It will be our memory and mind and we will be the 3D symbiotic servants [with our own little memories and minds to handle the minor things we encounter]. It will pay me royalties. Lots and lots of them [via QUALCOMM].
Jon thinks this is the Wacko Thread, but this is NOT a wacky idea. |
