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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop
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To: Clappy who wrote (16167)4/24/2000 11:58:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 35685
 
my expectations as time proceeds:

- Naz 3350 retest will succeed for now
- next comes a rally to the Moving Averages 15% above here
- it will be explosive at first then lose steam
- too much negative sentiment remains, no confidence
- then comes more Fed rate fears prior to May16th
- several weeks must pass to become assured that the Fed will not destroy this bull market and historic economic expansion
(biggest uncertainty is this issue, with Housing already offtrack)

- until midsummer comes sawtooth trading range for Naz between 3200 and 4200 with mucho volatility
- enormous opposing forces will face off, with New Paradigm Priests straining to declare the Great Buildout continues, versus Old Economy Graybeards urging like carnival barkers that the Bear has wounded Techs

I see big volatility and great trading opportunities upcoming for the deft & fleet afoot
I see no worse Naz than recent lows
I see no strong sustained recovery approaching 4500 until late summer

I see a possible Naz rally surpassing 5000 by yearend, which will lack the enthusiasm of past months because:

- margin usage will be much more restrained
- many many daytraders and other risky players are cut down
- confidence is shaken terribly
- the Fed might possibly destroy this economy in search of its elusive (and never attained) Soft Landing

ONCE THE FED FINALLY SEES A SLOWING ECONOMY, THEN ALL RATE HIKES DURING THE PREVIOUS 3-4 MONTHS WILL BE DEEMED EXCESSIVE, THUS SLOWING THE ECONOMY MUCH BEYOND THAT ELUSIVE SOFT LANDING

shaken, stirred, wounded
/ Jim Willie
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