FLSTF97:
RE: QCOM Valuation...
Multex (here on SI) gives FY2000 of $1.08, which I think we would consider a lo-ball. You give it $1.29, which I think is a shade low, I'm more inclined at $1.40-$1.50.
However, using your number as more conservative, that puts QCOM at 76 P/E based on today's $99 close. In terms of share price, that's back to December 1999....but in terms of P/E, the last time we saw a 76 was in Dec 98! (Actually, it was lower than that, but I'm using last year's $.33 earnings...forward numbers, to be consistent.)
Ten days ago or so, I went to cash 100% (but I kept GMST), so I'm now looking for new entry points. I know...I know...I get bashed around on margin use, and now I'm opening myself up to the "T" word...but my hunch is that we're going to see still lower prices across the board.
However, working these numbers backwards is one way to get my house in order here. Clearly, the companies are stronger because their earnings are higher than previously. For the strongest, I expect those to keep rising. But for all, I feel AG's statements and moves in May, inflation numbers that will get wide press, continuing angst about MSFT...all will sustain the market's uncertainty...and the market just hates uncertainty and responds to the downside...and even these strongest companies will be carried down some more.
As Q approaches 50x my $1.50, I will begin buying. That would be $300 pre split....mid-November prices...back when Lindy was predicting $400.
Chaz
BTW...there are just three other companies on my radar screen with P/E's in the 70's....WIND, HLIT, and AHAA. All are profitable, p/e's from the 40's to the mid 60's. |
