Andreas, <<"Its interesting that comparing the share price one day before earnings with those in the past, the stock price is lower than it has been in severak years. Maybe this time it will be "buy on the news".>>
You fail to mention that during the same time, the Nasdaq has dropped from 5150 to 3482 at yesterday's close, or 32% (more if you consider the intraday low). Maybe this has something to do with it, I am not sure.
My thoughts on earnings. They are fine. Period. Better than the .16 although I will be happy with that from an operations perspective, and it is what I am expecting. There is no way in hell that the new CFO would come on board and screw this up on his first appearance. There is too much compensation riding on his options, not to mention that Capellas is also establishing his credibility and cannot afford to disappoint. He will not, as he has beaten the numbers in quarters past.
Also, there are exactly 124 technology companies reporting earnings today, per Schwab's Tech Earnings Calendar, not to mention the non-tech earnings.
Coming out at 3:30 p.m. is a sign of confidence -- they want their story to be heard loud and clear, and only because it is a good story. As to Captain Jack's comment on what is so difficult to explain, well I agree nothing is difficult for a rational person, but there is plenty. ICO effects and direct sales shift, layoffs, progress on new products, new product sales projections, storage progress, services progress, iPaq progress, ESSG, Commercial, Consumer progress, and on and on.
So there is plenty to digest if one wants to ask the right questions during the conference call. I suspect the press release will be 10 pages long, with that detail. The number should be fine, but they also have to explain how they will go from .16 to the rest which adds up to the Capellas conservative 1.06 for the year at a 12% growth rate, despite having an internal goal of 15%. That is a mighty jump that has to be translated to the consumers that only look backwards at past problems.
I think that with many of the "heavier" houses expecting the company to earn 12 cents or so, the same firms that frequently have their views frequently espoused on CNBC and other media at a volume setting that is louder than that of more favorable firms, there is plenty of room to surprise to the upside. If these guys come on board, we just may get a jump start on the rest of the year. |
