Mephisto,
Last first: I've heard that the Etec acquisition will be a bit diluitive to earnings this quarter (ends next week!). Remains to be seen exactly how much. I think AMAT will show another banner quarter (how can it not? It accounts for about $700 million of last month's $1.7 billion in equip ships), but I'm concerned that they may choose to "adjust the books" a la IBM and Intel. They don't need to, in my opinion; but they might anyway, and that would be a Very Disturbing Signal for me.
Price too earnings has always been a consideration, rumors to the contrary. I think some folks who've traded only in the recent bull market (what percentage is that, do you suppose?) got caught up in the "panic buying" of recent months. We stood pat, actually doing a bit of selling (nobody every went broke locking in profits, last I knew). I watched a bit of CNBC this morning, and there's more media attention on P/E than at, say, Christmas last. That's healthy, I think! Let's cut the hype and go back to determining true value firms, rather than putting on a blindfold and buying everything, anything.
By the way, a noted analyst (Ralph Block I think) says we've successfully tested bottom on the NASDAQ, and he foresees a rally of 2+ months in the offing. No return to records, he said. (Sorry, I didn't catch the firm he works for.) There's probably something up on cnbc.com about his forecast, I'm just too lazy to go over there right now.
OT
Real estate: Another of the Great Mysteries, for me at least. <grin> I've been watching house prices in Silicon Valley for 3+ years now, not closely, but occasionally. What I find interesting there is the phenomenon of the "selling auction" that seems to be the normal way to sell and buy housing there. The seller puts the property up, with an asking price. The realtor publishes that offers past a certain date (a week or two at most) won't be considered. At that "close" date, the buyer with the highest offer gets the shot at acquiring the property.
Any house I've bought or sold, you were lucky to get any where near asking. Out there, it's apparently a 15-20% premium! And the seller often makes some outrageous requirements that stick, like living in the house for up to a year after they sell it. <sigh>
Well, I just got word that such "auctioning" is now happening here in the Austin area, which indicates to me that the greater Austin metroplex is once again overheated economically. One published forecast says 22% gain generally in house valuations this year, for Travis and surrounding counties. (Austin is now a 5-county MSA, or metropolitan statistics entity as far as the Feds are concerned.)
Good news is, my property is worth more. Bad news is, taxes are climbing at an alarming rate. And I live in the county (not the city), and can expect a doubling as soon as somebody annexes this area.
That AMAT stock better go gang-busters, so's I can pay my taxes!
Mitch |
