I agree with your general trend, Lester, but I am not as "bullish" as you on this one. In my opinion, AMAT stock is a good buy now, and may be a bet better one after the summer heat breaks. I think more like 130 at year's end.
I don't see AMAT going for another split until well past 200, though. They used to have the notion that $100 a share was a major psychological hurdle, and they would split about there to keep their stock circulating. The last NASDAQ runup has changed a lot of companies' thinking about this effect, and AMAT also now considers themselves to be "premier." (I agree with this, but not everybody does. Yet. <g>) So I think $250-300 is more likely their next "split window," and a split would only occur there if there is still significant volume and upward momentum to AMAT and the market in general.
I frankly don't see AMAT having much trouble making $200 next year, though. And since another split would bring my basis to about $6 a share, I say, "Bring it on!" Based on my personal finances model, I only need one more split and a price above $150 to chuck it all and become an innocent bystander....
Mitch |
