david & bosco,
For some insight as to when folks inside know about earnings etc. versus when it is announced, note statement in today's ABGX earnings PR concerning CEGE's "approximately 12%" stake. If I'm not mistaken, it's been known for about a month that CEGE's stake is now closer to 8%. Does this mean everything in this PR was known over a month ago? Except that CEGE's stake has changed since its preparation and some editor didn't change it? Or does it simply mean that it was written recently from recently known data, but the writer was sloppy in ownership research? Hmmmm. Sloppy, anyway.
I agree with David that JT milestones should happen in Q2. I'm debating writing calls here, but they could announce a late stage candidate deal any time. My guess is it will be a couple of months at earliest, though. Stock and technology prices will be in a range for a few months in biotech, IMO. So CEGE can take the time required to choose wisely. So I'm thinking June calls, then go naked or half naked.
How much upside would come to CEGE from a favorable TKTX ruling? Even if TKTX wins, it'll still be a while before they get to market, right? Is TKTX closer to selling in Europe?
If this doesn't come off the top of your head, I'll be glad to go find that info myself and post it, but it might be a couple of days.
Cheers, Tuck |
