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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 252.25

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Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Dr. Mitchell R. White who wrote (34978)	4/25/2000 1:48:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Mitch and all, how long will the boom last? A recent Semiconductor Business News article says... >The fast-ramp forecast, by the way, called for 44% increase in shipments this year to $36 billion, which could mean an earlier peak in the current business cycle by 2002.< semibiznews.com Let's take that Y2000 target of $ 36B and compare to what has been shipped so far, in $M: ship orders btb Jan00 1603.5 2227.3 1.39 Feb00 1595.1 2293.8 1.44 Mar00 1685.3 2451.7 1.45 ---------------------------- total 4883.9 6972.8 Y2000 target - YTD total= 36000-4884=31116 So the average shipment for the 9 months remaining is 31116/9=$3,457M Restated, to reach the 36B ship target for Y2000, shipments would have to average 3.457B over the next 9 months. I find that incredible. Gottfried PS: I realize the SEMI numbers are 3 month moving averages.

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