Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (65251)	4/25/2000 5:05:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Uh ohhh; just saw the API report +4 M - now around 307 M boe ? .... I've only got 50% Oil's here now, due to some leverage in techland; I'd be carefull on margin in the Oilpatch folks. Looks like a re-test of OSX 100 - which should hold. I think this is a normal build here - seasonal as expected; but ! OPEC did shoot themselves in the foot a bit - poor, poor timing. They should have waited untill June - morons... this sets up some serious "spin-doctor" potential for the Oil-bears here. Another thing that scares me a bit here, is today TX just hammered the numbers - crushed 'em ! But, this damn stock is still 30-40% under where it was-should be ? The majors & integrateds are too cheap here for my comfort. That is where the liquidity is - for true market rotation - we are trully not in an "Oil Boom" untill the Majors-mini's-integrateds start participating... I'm trimming Oilpatch here folks - have too; the momenteum is NOT coming to the Oilpatch - even with the sterling earnings; because #$!#(#)n OPEC - gave the spin-doctors an opening to really push crude oil prices down on these inventory storage numbers folks - in the short term snap shot - its not a good trend. The Street will not take us higher now imho; because they have good reason to NOT believe the sustainability of crude here - given the storage trend. Nat Gas alone has NEVER been enough to either move us higher,or maintain us - start looking to take profits ASAP in the Nat Gas E&P's folks - I'm telling you.... "if" Crude takes a $2 shot here; we are going to test OSX 100 hard, real hard... and "if" we get 2-3 more weeks of 3-4 M boe builds - then we are right back to 320-325 M boe of storage and that gives the damn oilbears reason to price us at $17-$18 Oil & not $25ish. Analyst models will be adjusted, target prices lowered and then we'll have a qtr, or two - to where OPEC MUST toe the line compliance-wise and we have to draw back down to 290M boe imho to get the fundamental belief in Crude's Sustainability back - to support a run thru OSX 135+. That's the "bearish" take by a longterm "bull" fwiw... Dont let your hard earned profits melt away folks... no need to dump entire positions, but I would eliminate ALL margin and be taking 30-50% off the table into the tape if we open into a selloff. I see 5-7% down tomorrow fwiw... ... still time to grab some "tech" .... here's a freebie - RCNC - Paul Allen's Vulcan Venture's "Wired World" - cable/wireless/iNet super communications/media play... do the "DD" - its at THE bottom - huge volume buying into the close today - lots of 20-40K blocks. "ease" in - 3 buys 29ish, 27ish - and leverage sub $24 - 50% upside over the next 2 qtrs. Cable/Telecom plays are THE safe bet - WCOM a LT no-brainer play... Not trying to "move it lower" so I can buy cheaper - as I am saying this AFTER seeing the API's - and they AINT good, 85% odds we all know we're going lower in the morning... take the profits - sit back for support and dont start buying untill OSX 100ish - and we could test 85ish - "IF" we get 2-3 more weeks in a row of API adds - once again; thank #@$%)#%*N OPEC for their terrible damn timing to ease here.... This is STILL the BEST risk vs reward sector in the entire market - "IF" the Street believes the SUSTAINABILITY of CRUDE PRICES - BUT !- these API's builds over 300 M boe - are going to scare the $h!^ out of them imho... could be 2-4 weeks of softness here - take the profits and buy 'em back cheaper imo.... and in the meantime - make the money in tech ~

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