Thoughts from the cool-headed cats:
(1) So much for TA. Think Stan does a phenomenal job on this thread, but I just don't put much stock into TA. Never did. The market does not react mathematically in the short-term and rational valuation doesn't even matter half the time. It is psychology, plain and simple. And psychology has seemed to change now. Just listen to those experts on CNBC. What really happened is that finally some institutions and retailers had the balls to come in and buy in size once the sellers were gone. This did not shock me as a friend of mine pointed out to me that the volume on yesterdays third large selloff in 2 weeks was much lower than the previous two. (He actually pointed it out to me intraday but I, for one, did not have the balls to come in yesterday).
(2) The bloodletting appears over. I actually believe that it was mostly profitaking, first by insiders and then by institutions and retailers who got scared as their profits dwindled. Then came those who wanted to limit their losses. Then came those who were on margin. But nothing fundamental changed whatsoever.
(3) Today I added VERT and now have only 2 holdings, this and CMRC. Why? Because b2b is where it is at. Interesting post I read on RB when I was actually dd'ing AKAM. Apparently, there was an article in Business Magazine called the $100 billion club. It stated 8 companies that would reach this mark in addition to AOL and YHOO (which was once there). 4 of them were b2b: CMRC, VERT, ARBA, VNTR. Since I am loaded with CMRC, I avoided ARBA which should move in a similar manner. But VERT is different and the potential is astounding. It is a giant and imo it's just a matter of when here and not if. Again, VNTR is a poor man's VERT so there was no need to go there. (Oh, by the way, the other four were AMZN (I hate retailers), AKAM (a critical company which people on the threads do not understand fully yet - it will provide the fastest delivery of content and streaming on the net, its technology is very complex, and there is no close second - people think it's overvalued, but I would not be surprised if its revenue in the 3rd or 4th quarter was 5X what it was in the 1st and then the naysayers will climb aboard - and by the way, when have you ever seen venture capitalists willing to extend their lockup period for an additional quarter? I've never seen it. Nothing obligated them to do this. Tells you something about what they think of the company (and MSFT and CSCO are among the investors, by the way) - I'll wait for the blood to stop on this one and then load up), INSP (a great company with awesome potential and I almost picked up some under 50 yesterday which I am kicking myself about, but I always have trouble pulling the trigger on the wireless companies. I think the growth here is going to be slower than people expect and the market caps for these companies are unreal relative to their revenues, but I would not be surprised at all if INSP was a huge winner. I just feel safer with b2b where revenue growth has been proven.) and VRSN was the last one).
(4) I have heard a lot of gloom and doom the last month, but just remember, if the drops weren't so great, the rebounds wouldn't be so great. There's still blood everywhere. And once the giants rebound, the good $10-20 stocks will go and there will 25%-100% returns all over the place. Stay focused everyone. G&J |
