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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 76.11

+0.9%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Jacob S. Rosenberg who wrote ()	4/25/2000 9:14:00 PM
From: bambs	Read Replies (4) of 77400

It does appear that the bulls have declared victory and a "successful test of the bottom". I haven't reset my shorts yet. I will have to wait for a little more upside. Perhaps, after a few more key numbers come out. I played CREE again today...it moves so well. I lags the sox.x and the NAS like a dream. Days range is always 10+ and liquidity is fair. CREE and AETH are my daytrading stocks of choice right now. I remain in cash....still waiting for NAZ to go sub 2500 before I put any long term funds in the pig of a market. You can call me a joke if you wish...I rode this market up like the rest of you here. I went to cash just as the biotechs were peeking. I credit Anthony Pacific for helping to get me out of the market at the perfect time. Most of the subscribers to his service went to cash and short the market at 5000+. I now see this "pull back and retest" as the first leg of a bear market. I'm with William Fleckenstein, this market is going to trend lower for some time. The hardest part of this is trying to figure out how long it will take the general public to see the writing on the wall. I was listening to a William Fleckenstein interview on my bloomberg terminal to today...he was saying the most investors have been buying stocks for the last few years because they are going up, not because they understand fundamentals. Reality will begin to set in as their stocks stop going up. Perhaps people will read and think more when they are trying to figure out why they aren't making money anymore. The entire US economy is currently 9T. Some say that networking will be 1T in 2005 and CSCO will get 10% or 1 bil and 17% profit and trade at a P/E of 100...that is pipe dream! A crack pipe dream! Look at IBM current revenue 87 bil. Growth rate 7% P/E 25. It isn't easy....CSCO shareholders will find this out the hard way. The bigger you get the harder it is to grow at a large rate. Enjoy the bounce. I predict that in 2005 CSCO will have numbers similar to IBM in terms of revenue, growth, profit, P/E and market cap. It will also be viewed as a fantastic company...that was once way overvalued. lol. bambs

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