If AWE runs post-IPO (like over $50) I will short this as a hedge on my other wireless holdings because AWE employs the most spectrally inefficient digital air interface .
Carriers historically are the worst-performing segment of the telecoms value chain, and the TDMA backbone will require megabucks to upgrade, regardless of whether there is a first stop at EDGE before direct spread CDMA.
AWE runs a real risk of becoming capacity constrained if wireless data traffic gets to > 20% of voice.
Different, but good cases, can be made for each of CDMA and
GSM/GPRS/EDGE/W-CDMA migrations. TDMA appears to be a fairly hopeless dead-end - but then again T has always excelled in draining every last revenue dollar from legacy investments b/4 proceeding onward. They have tweaked TDMA
to improve its performance a number of times, but the laws of physics are looming in the available spectrum.
Again, if I short, it will be as a hedge against other long wireless positions, not a short on wireless, and you guys could improve the odds for me if you load up on this one.
One thing for sure, with this many shares to be out, there won't be a squeeze on shorts.
Being a carrier and being a manufacturer (LU) are two different things, but even LU must lumber with the burden of its T legacy whilst the NT's of the world Sprint (oops) on! |
