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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 668.73

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Nov 24 4:00 PM EST

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To: AllansAlias who wrote (48072)	4/25/2000 10:36:00 PM
From: TheKelster	Read Replies (4) of 99985

This is not a moot point. (ps: Don't Island Reversals normally take place at a new top/bottom? This one did not. A moot point perhaps.) Steve Nison goes to great length to impress upon us that candlesticks are not to be used without first considering the western methods of trendlines, channels, and other formations. Only when used while taking consideration of the major trends are candlesticks valid. For a possible example of what may be happening examine Qcom. Specifically look back to last December through February of this year. I can count 3-4 island reversals in this time period. They are a bit obscure but not undefinable. Because these reversals are not occurring at the tail end of a long trend, they merely represent the extreme war between the bears and the bulls. After a long and explosive move up Qcom lost 1/2 it's value. This brought out a new wave of buyers but a struggle ensued because of the strength of the sellers. In the long run the second wave buyers proved not to be as strong as the first wave buyers. The first wave buyers were greater in numbers and the exit assault continued unabated. I believe this is happening in the Naz. The bulls are rallying back mightily but the bears continue an unrelenting campaign. It may take another month but I believe the bears are going to win out. The volatility attests to the viciousness of the battle. When the bulls do finally turn tail and run the bears will chase them as far as Ramoth-Giliad and slay them till the blood runs waist deep. :-) Four or more all time record gaps in April 2,000. You think "that's it" we can all form a base and go back to normal? Not a chance. There's a storm a brewing. All cash, KK

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