Portfolio Survey
ok, I'll show mine...as of close 4/25/00:
Company % Classification
QCOM 31.5 (gorilla)
SEBL 13 (gorilla)
JDSU 12 (king)
GMST 12 (gorzilla fetus)
ITWO 9.5 (gorilla fetus)
NTAP 8 (king)
ITXC 8 (pebble/princeling)
CREE 6 (dauphin?)
Comments:
1. 80% common stock, 20% options (mostly LEAPS); some margin.
2. Because of volatility and leverage, relative standing of holdings
shifts constantly, although Q is always far out ahead. The portfolio has
a particularly high beta. It is currently just over 60% off its March peak.
3. 6 out of 8 companies have had quarterly reports in the past 2 weeks;
all the reports have been stellar, beating analysts' expectations
and in general revealing excellent fundamentals and future prospects.
I believe the other 2 (GMST and NTAP) will do the same when they report soon.
In general, I am tickled pink to be a minority owner of all of these
fantastic businesses. Everything I see tells me that the visionary
leaderships at these companies are going all out, and I can hardly
imagine having a better crop of people working for me. Almost all
the companies are operating in young tornados, and almost
all have already created deep and lasting competitive advantages
for themselves. I am extremely grateful to all of you who led me to them
and opened my eyes to their true worth.
4. Which will double in the next year? Well, since some of you already
have me pegged as a naive, greaterfool permabull, I won't disappoint.
I honestly believe that all of them have an excellent shot at doubling,
for several reasons. First, they are growing rapidly and consistently;
this will get noticed and attract many new investors. Second, few
are now household words, but most should become so as time goes by.
Third, all are substantially off their recent highs, by an average of 45%.
All they would have to do to double is recover the ground they have
lost and take a bit more; with a healthy economy and 12 months to
do it (four more excellent quarters!), I see it as a very good bet
indeed. Fourth, they are all volatile tech stocks. 2 of them went
up more than 30% today alone; 100% over a year is hardly unreasonable
if one assumes any kind of continued public appetite for top-quality
growth stocks.
5. That's a cop-out; if you had to pick one, which would it be?
Well, if the goal is to be as certain as possible of reaching a
double, I supposed I'd pick SEBL--because it is an untarnished
gorilla. (QCOM could take a while to come out from under its cloud, and
the others are mostly royalty or fetuses who have a greater chance of
assassination or miscarriage.)
tekboy/Ares@thatkoolaidtastesgood!.com |
