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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: ekn who wrote (1309)4/25/2000 11:18:00 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (2) of 33421
 
The Fed Fund Futures are pricing in a 2-3% chance of
a 50 basis point Fed Hike in May. That's what the June
Fed Funds futures are indicating. The Continued weakness
in the EURO makes it extremely difficult for the FED to
move by 50 basis points in May even if the NASD was blazing
ahead at 5600.

Interest rate differentials are such that if you are
short the USD you are getting buried on your position, even
if the currencies do not move at all, do to the carrying
costs of holding a short USD position. A short USD position
costs you points every day, and this undermines USD shorts
like an undertow laps back into the Ocean, Castles Made of
Sand.

Thus goes the Global Flow of Funds.

John
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