Gottfried, I just had to take a look.... <grin>
Nice charts! I've looked at that Book-to-Bill the longest, and have some interpretations. I note that we're about maxed out on production capability in semi equips; shipments approach an all-time high once again, and I know during the last downturn that many manufacturers lost valuable resources, from people (hard to replace in current employment market!) to buildings and capable suppliers. I predict growth continues, but at a reduced rate. Where can US manufacturers find people, equipment, buildings, idle suppliers? Answer is, they can't; Greenspan's right about this point, at least. So they have to build new buildings, maybe help new suppliers get going (or help existing ones add capacity), scrounge technical and other talent. This takes time!
Meanwhile, the demand for equipment skyrockets. That can't last either, as it's all part of a mad dash to "get the fab going BEFORE overcapacity sets in." So BtB will continue to grow. Where does it stop? Maybe 1.6? I dunno. We're definitely into uncharted waters. (Oops, sorry for the pun.)
We can discuss other features of that chart as interest arises.
There's one critical component, in my opinion at least, that's missing. That's backlog. I know, in theory backlogs can be estimated by integrating the bookings, and the shipments/billings, and taking the difference. At least the change in backlog can be computed that way. Still, I'm used to looking at backlog numbers to see how long a firm can go before it begins to look at layoffs, etc., during a downturn. (It's painful to consider such negatives in these high-flying times, but I've been through too many of them not to expect the next one.)
Mitch |
