re: open access to cable systems for ISPs
Dave, while going over some mail here I was half watching half listening to some consumer group on CNBC argue the case for T and AOL/TWX to open up their plant to other ISPs. From what I was able to gather, they want the facilities providers to divest their interests, or at least structurally separate those interests (surmising now, I should really pay better attention to these things), so as to allow open access to any other ISP who wants in. I suppose that that means as a function of user demand.
Should we be preparing for a tragedy of the commons in this case? Not that I wouldn't want to see a level playing field, but..
There wont be enough bandwidth for the TWO larger SPs who already have HFC in another year or two in many cases, and certainly not on the pure coaxial ones (ding! I never thought of this aspect: congestion as an deterrence to being ruled into OA!) when the pipes really begin to fill up and the payloads get larger and more continuous, as in streaming, or v-c, or large telemuting transfers, which as we all know will be a big part of the future.
Could you imagine what it would mean if hundreds, possibly thousands of ISPs converge on these HFCs after going through neutral regional centers (or NAPs) to get onto your cable service? Gotta love those large head end router sales. Question is, who will pay for them. Oh, yes.. they'll be resolved through usage settlements... <excuse me while I cough.. > Does this mean that every head end will become a custodial situation? Will the MSOs stand for this?
This might be the biggest case for dsl --even low speed, asymmetric dsl-- yet.
The DSL realm, after all, already supports multiple facilities-based- and virtual- CLECs (excuu ooze me, ICPs) who provide both residential and commercial services, now. Okay a lot of them still sucko mucho, but they've got their territorial rules laid out for them already to a large extent (and yes, there are new dsl players all the time and they must individually arm wrestle for colo space, etc.), and they should improve with time... uh, believe me, they should. But don't hold me to this beyond twenty four months from now.
It's going to be oodles of fun if these righteous cable-jumper advocates get their way. As things stand now, and if they don't improve with respect to number of homes passed, they will find out what the price is for interloping is in this space.
Wait a minute, one cannot legislate or regulate the creation of bandwidth, nor can one simply 'will' wider upstream channels.
But maybe.. maybe when all of the NTSC channels migrate to digital in the upper reaches of the spectrum.. maybe then, there will be enough room in the lower end to support this scheme. Do you think that this is behind some of the MSOs, and through extension, CableLabs, thinking?
How realistic of an approach is this, really, between now and 2002? Nah..
Why would they continue to use the analog portion in the lower end of the spectrum in the first place, if they've already perfected digital in the upper region? Because no one planned for ISP traffic in that region? Or, because all of the real estate in the upper region is already spoken for? The former feeds off the latter, and there you have it?
I guess they'll just migrate digital ISP stuff down into the lower region. But then, what will they do with all of these analog cablemodems if they perfect digital in the lower region of the spectrum?
A technical solution still needs to be devised, once a final regulatory posture is established. Anyone have any new thoughts on how this will play out?
It's been a while since we kicked this topic around. Has a vendor come out with a viable, field proven solution yet, one that is capable of facilitating more than three or four ISPs? Say, one top, two medium and one small ISP?
It's best to start small first, before we fall trap to the absurd. Hey, it's possible. But at what additional cost in terms of increased latency or being shut out at peak periods of the day? We've seen this movie before. Yes, facilities got faster, modem speeds increased, and expectations have soared.
But usage and traffic volumes will outstrip all of these gains very quickly, proportionately faster with incrased numbers of users and service providers. Run the numbers, draw the lines, see the curves.
All thoughts and comments, as well as corrections and differing opinions, are welcome. As always.
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