"Q" - you're nervous & it shows here...
Back to the old "Q" that we all know so well (VBG).
" I sold E&P's weeks ago, at lower prices" ?
... in some cases , in some cases not - Still have OXy from $16, UCL TX CHV KMG P BSNX from the low's but, "Q" - what I did do was play GLM from $20-$24, ESV from $28 - $33, traded nice pops in HOFF, NR, PTEN etc. and made more money than I would have by holding E&P's fwiw - sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't - it did this time.
"OSX/OS stocks, which have continued to decline as the E&P's have continued rising" ?
... "Q" - that is not true - I rotated into the drillers on their pullback - they've rallied strongly since - and have been great traders. I also took my E&P profits and found some other traders - HOFF NR - PTEN - huge trade on that one; etc.
"This is the build season - we are supposed to be getting a build"
....Duhhh. But NOT at the levels we are here... simply ask yourself this ; if the numbers are so "in line" and to be "Expected" - why is Crude selling off, why the OSX pullback ?
...PS - you didn't learn anything from the E&P freefall last Sept - when NG just simply pulled back - and that was in the peak demand season - hell, if it pulls back here - we could go to $2.50ish real easy again...
I'll say one thing on the E&P's - "I was E&P - when "E&P wasn't cool" - just like the country songs goes... I think the list of opps that I brought up here - BSNX VPI - pounded the table on UPR (remember your initial posts on too much debt etc..) - so; take a chill pill; I've done very, very well on my E&P plays here. I did get "off" XTO UPR VPI well below their peaks - but I caught bigger, much bigger moves on the drillers and other rotation plays - remember those charts I posted "Q" ? That divergence - converged; I called it - it happened, I sold it - and now I am playing the reversal of it - in the drillers. I got criticized heavilly when I pounded the table on that original "divergence in value & fundamentals" play on the E&P's and I would expect to get criticized on the reversal back to the divergence in the pullback of the driller/OS stocks here now... I like to leverage the middle 75-80% of these moves - I want to get out a bit early...
This is not a contest - no way to verify the truth here anyway - and I do know there is an awfull lot of Pinocchio-esque BSing going on about MARGIN here - if nearly as many people here stayed as "fully leveraged" as they say they did - there were plenty of OSX 117 to 102 type of corrections that the E&P's participated in as well - that would have created 30-45% hits to trading capital at 2:1 & 3:1 leverage... glad to see that the "who had the biggest margin position" game seems to have subsided here...
"Q" you obviously add much here as many do; I am not criticizing you - I am adding a different perspective - one of someone who is not so obviously "nervously" talking his own position. Good, bad , or indifferent - if there is anything that I think I've done pretty well here is to time many, many of the tops here in these cycles and to also do pretty damn well in catching the bottoms.
This may be a short lived retrace here - but, if you got out at OSX 115-117 of late and re-bought back at 100-105 you've done real well. I just traded ESV from $28-$33 and added today on my first re-entry back at sub $31 - will wait for $29 - $27 if seen etc. I've only been buying bottomed supported values like PGO CXIPY - trading the drillers like FLC ESV - holding my remaining E&P's - as I've only got stocks that have not "connected" as yet remaining - sold the others...
And as far as tech - I think we all see a bit of the ole' sour grapes here "Q" - please don't get mad at Jim & I and others for making a couple of 50-80% poppers here in techland - leveraged those moves too by the way (VBG). Go back & read the list of what I bought on the first day of the blow off...
It's like being able to just walk in and pick off anything you want - after all the longtimers were bloodied & battered... I've got a wheelbarrow full of new ammo to bring to the oilpatch, but to be honest - I may be 67% tech/telecom/cable and only 33% Oilpatch untill I see those supply numbers turn... just a bit of Deja Vu all over again from May 1998 - when things went from Heaven to Hell - inside 3 weeks... virtually NO ONE saw it coming...
Good Luck - do as you like; but some of us have just made 6 mos worth of Oilpatch returns in 2 weeks in techland - don't fault us for having the risk tolerance to wade into the bloody streets and do a little tradin` (VBG) and then respecting what the Big, Old & Smart Money is seeing here as well...
Be carefull out there "Q"... 307 M boe and going the wrong way... also; what is the risk vs. reward ratio of $3 NG holding here between the contraseasonal peak demand of Aug & Winter Heating season ? - go back and look at NG charts - this is the deadzone approaching - ripe for a technical retrace... dont get caught...
OSX & many E&P's at resistance here - many stocks not moving up thru resistance on great earnings here. Tremendous risk tomorrow for the overall market - this is a thinking man's "CASH Position" if there EVER was one. Add this to the fact that we are trying to break resistance directly into the face of declining crude prices - peaked NG prices and rising API/DOE supply numbers - resistance looks to hold again in the short term here - I'd be a profit taker and a stock picker - ie: CXIPY today... |
