Stockjock's opinion FWIW.....interesting read.
April 27, 2000
8:50 AM EST
Stock Jock! Short JDSU, YHOO, CMRC, CMGI, ORCL, CSCO, DELL, INTC
Long - INSP
BREAKING NEWS: GDP 5.4% ( A little weaker)
ECI (Employment Cost Index) 1.4% Much
Stronger)
Estimate was.09% + 46.5%
above what was expected
NASDAQ MARKET OUTLOOK TODAY:
"Get the BEAR Off My Back Today As NASDAQ should test April lows of
3,221.00 and then close over our 'DOUBLE BOTTOM" - 3,321.00!"
Stock Fans, The NASDAQ Futures were up more then 3.00 points ahead of the
ECI hitting today at 8:30 EST. As soon as it hit the NASDAQ Futures dropped
almost 80 points down 72.50, then they did! They currently sit down 107.50
points.
"What Does This Mean?"
It would appear now that the NASDAQ will drop down and test its April 17,
2000, Low of 3,221.00. I am going stay with my prediction that the NASDAQ
goes there and then closes over 3321.00 today. JSDU told us a great deal
as we were short but survived the barrage. On seeing JDSU explode on CNBC
CEO and on it heavily being shorted it told us that the market was set up
to indeed test April lows. Some thought 3600.00 tested 5 times in the last
3 days was rock solid since MSFT sent us there this Monday. It looks now
very much like the NASDAQ will open under Monday's 3480.00 open down over
150.00 points. It help 3340.00 that day. However the market is not one
that will let Allen Greenspan and the FED tighten by .50 to hold of
inflation. The truth is history shows that Greenspan won't increase by .50
the 2nd week of May when the Fed meets next to set interest rates. So then
how do we fend off inflation that today's ECI and April 14, 2000 showed
was creeping up something that must be stopped to avoid a recession? Well
its simple really the market now will adjust so that Allen won't have to
raise .50 in May. What this means is that the NASDAQ should stay under
3,500 into that meeting falling back today and testing those lows of April
17, 2000. Looking at recent history on the NASDAQ we go back to March 22,
2000 the last time the FED met. The NASDAQ fell to 4,46.00 ahead of what
was expected,and turned out to be a .25 rate increase. We then saw a huge
move as the NASDAQ Market Technicians shorted the NASDAQ as it rocketed to
5,000 again up more then 500 points in less then 4 days. Then came April
4, 2000 we dropped to 3,649.00. What that told us was that the market was
figuring in 500 points on average for each point increase. Therefore it
now looks like the FED would have to raise .50 to off set the CPI and
today's ECI. So in order to keep .50 out of play. The NASDAQ must lose
about 500 points. It should come close today dropping down to 3221.00 maybe
a little lower. I do however see the NASDAQ bouncing up over 3321.00 and
closing somewhere between there and 3,400.00 today. The most important
thing is the NASDAQ stays under 3,500.00 into the FED meeting in MAY. It
also should according to history of bear markets. The NASDAQ is in one
20% off its highs of March 10, 2000 stay off the sub 3,000.00 area as
history shows dating back all the way to the crash of Oct 24 1987, and the
recent drop in summer 1998 and summer of 1999 that the NASDAQ doesn't
allow more then 40% off all time highs in a 200 day period. So we should
hold 3,000 today, but lose 3,300.00 only to close over it. At 3,321 to
3,400.00. Then we await the FED 2nd Wed of MAY. |
