<<from IQBAL LATIF at Apr 26, 2000 3:27 PM ET
I am little concerned over ECI and have taken adequate pretection in case I am surprised, if you look at hourly earnings growth amd imported price increases we can see a upside increase in ECI, however MSFT 75 calls for July and AMD July 90's are not a bad call in case if we have strong upside opening.. durable goods order in context of strong manufacturing in my opinion is in line. I don't see that gap between cap utilisation and industrial production closing it is still wide as such from the lows of ASEAN crisis the recent surge in manufacturing or durable goods is satisfactory as far as wage pressures do not rise, it is wage that constitutes 70% 0f inflationary pressures and after strong CPI this market cannot afford a strong ECI too lets hope for the good of market to see a benign number.. so for me little protection is well advised but with a long short strategy where oversold issues are covered properly in case of rally.. I am out for dinner and will hope to see this thread in them orning when my posts will be inconsequential to the numbers.. >>
I am out of my protection, ECI was super strong but GDP was little on the lower side, weekly unemployment claims are also on the rise, coupled with lower sentiments I would assume that economy will be collared with these higher interest rates however all said we will see higher volatility, today supports of 10750 on DOW should hold if this ECI is discounted by the markets also BKX 775 needs to hold, ideally 800 plus close would be nice, I think that from these oversold levels I would like to see a shift in DOW to Comp, now this is a policy shift statementfrom oversold levels the idea that Comp and Techs would be least impacted by rising interest rates looks to me rather appealing, at 5000 on Comp I was propenent of long GT HON GE short Comp, now I will give it a twist and consider that higher interest rates may impact DOW more and BKX more than MSFT now at 68$ not at 106$, with NOK blockbuster and Susan Slaine getting her wish of why BVSN does not move I see some nice techs move here in some oversold issues that is what I am looking at, a subtle change in my emphasis and regrouping of my strategy behind the stocks which will not be much impacted by rising interest rates, considering that I was worried about these stocks more at 5000 Comp as discounted future cash flow in a rising rates would impact them now at DOt cut to half and many a nice movers cut to size it is worth looking and rethinking new strategy.. |
