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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 228.29+1.0%11:13 AM EST
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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (102259)4/27/2000 11:55:00 AM
From: Bearded One  Read Replies (1) of 164684
 
The problem is that you're betting on a horse, not a company. But I'll give it a go:

Lessee. They are in a market where nobody has made any money with tremendous competition. They are early, though, so that's nice. Let's give them a 50 percent chance of being around five years from now. Companies like IBM are coming out with software systems to do the same thing at a fixed price. So they are going to be a services company. If they are, they won't be making more than a few million a year. Let's be generous and say 20 million a year earnings at 20 percent growth, five years from now. That would give them a market value of (forgetting about interest rates and inflation and such) of 400 million a year, but given a 50 percent chance of survival, cut that in half to 200 million.
So with 73 million shares outstanding, if I wanted to risk it, I'd pay about 3 bucks a share to get in on the bet.
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