Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: BigBull who wrote (65372)	4/27/2000 1:01:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

IS this the same BULLSKY who bailed on the dip and is now chasing the rally (VBG) ? NEWBIE - FOUL ~ say it aint so Ivan... bailing on a dip and chasing a rally - that aint the ole' Bullsky ? re: this aint '97, '98 - you are right and while it is not necessary for the Majors to rally for the OSX to rally, it IS necessary for them to participate for the Rally to be endorsed as supportable and one to buy into, to chase & add to and not one to sell into. In 1997 we had $3 NG - $22ish crude - in 1997-1998 however we also had earnings about 2-4 times higher at OSX 120 than we do here. 1997-1998 were much more fundamentally supported (VBG). Storage is not just a normal seasonal build here - obviously, this is a build season; but crude would NOT be searching for support at $25 if the build was not more than the market wanted to see and if it was not a negative. Yes; gasoline demand season is coming, but the OSX is supported here on STILL two things - the sustainability of $25ish+ crude AND the high expectations of future earnings returning to 1997-98 levels. If one compared the OSX company earnings in 1997-98 to here today - given the same OSX 115-120 levels; you would think that they all had .com appelations... literally, the tech multiple expansions in valuations have nothing over the OSX here - on an earnings basis... Anytime you have historcally high valuations supported by EXPECTATIONS and not the actual earnings - you had better consider selling breakouts that are not historically supported by crude AND storage trending positively together. If the OSX moves up here with storage moving the wrong direction and crude "Waffling" - trying to find support - I'd sell into it. The time to buy & chase, or hold - is when the Trifecta-mode is in gear; when earnings are trending up to outpace valuations, when crude is rising (or at least supported) and when storage is declining. We only have the "expectaions" of the earnings here - not quite yet to where they are ramping past "Fair value" and we do not have the other two rising either. That = a profit taking rally imo. I'd be a seller of 30% on each 10% move up here and there are still laggards to rotate into - CXIPY & PGO are two gems, OII SCSWF as well as others..

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