Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (65389)	4/27/2000 3:09:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 95453

"Q" - follow what they do - not what they say; re:XTO hedging... BINGO ! Simpson is my fav' CEO - uses leverage, puts his cojones on the line with acquisitions and the illfated stock buy etc... But ~ he hedged... and what does that say ? ...XTO see's more downside to upside at $3 for NG here - period, end of discussion. Risk - MUST be factored into any potential upside - thats a big mistake most continue to make here. As much, if not more money is made by knowing when to sell, than knowing when to buy. XTO put their $ on the no-brainer call on a risk vs. reward basis imho. Hedge that $28 Oil & $3 NG all damn day long.... The entire NG is the same as what we heard last year - but, we have one hell of a lot more drilling activity onshore for NG here in Q1-2 this year than last.... just look at PTEN, UTI's, KEG rig utilization numbers.... Gas demand will be met - no rush for utility buyers to rush to lock in that much $3+ gas here yet... PS - on my comments on profit taking - selling here. Let me explain. 1. I want to dump 1/3 here - thru resistance 2. I want to dump the next 1/3rd as we breakout into new territory - if that should happen 3. I want the other 1/3rd to either hold, or to continue to sell into a rally that sprouts legs that no one envisioned. We allways pullback nearly 1/2 of the intial breakout moves on new legs. I am not sure if the sector breaks out to a new wave here, individual stocks may. Does ANYONE think we go to OSX 140 here ? They can have 1/3 of what I have left at 120-125 They can have 1/3rd at 125-130ish They can have it all at 130-140ish... wont happen. Then I will buy most all of it back on the normal 50% pullback of the breakout and I "buy back" in "waves" just like I sold... If we hit OSX 14 - on a run from the bottom of 100 here, we should pull back to 115ish; I'd be a buyer starting at 120ish- then 100-1o5 if seen. The OSX has traded like this since the fall of 98 - it has NOT changed. Sell into this one in waves folks ~ then buy it all back cheaper. But, do watch Oil - up 70 some cents today - I'd still be selling 1/3 on the next 5-10% move here - then adjust accordingly if we see good API's and crude reacting positively . You cant make money as a trader if you get greedy and emotionaly envision rallys to levels not supported by the fundamentals quite yet... sell resistance first, then the breakout - put it in the register on this one ~

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