rally on bad data is BULLISH
Ultimately, it's bearish, very bearish.
The longer the illusion is bought, the greater the degree of disillusionment when it is clearly seen for what it is.
I agree that today the bull was wearing GS brand kevlar. It is penetrable.
What do you think of the argument that tech is immune to inflation?
I think this argument needs several assumptions.
One, that tech is not dependent on the "old economy" for revenue.
Or, that tech is now such a necessary part of business that it is immune to decreased spending by the "old economy" - as necessary, for instance, as cocaine.
Two, that investors will ignore the appeal of corporate bonds at, say 9-10%, in favor of a riskier gain in tech. (I think this is the argument that any thinking buyer of the dung must make right now to justify his/her actions. But WTF, does the avg dung buyer do anything but follow the leader? This argument assumes intelligence and ho ho, you need tough love to get that.)
Three, that the data is wrong.
Four, wage increases won't last because the economy will slow soon. (This one is correct, IMO)
Five, Inflation will slow soon because we control Saudi Arabia and oil will go down further if we need it. (teeheehee)
The bear has a heavy, fierce paw of reality,
whereas the bulls have only the pavlovian pleasures of the past.
(Let me repeat something if you didn't see it earlier. Do not short a stock about to be unlocked, you will be squeezed. I'm compiling a list of underwriters who do this consistently. Guess who's on the top of the list? Predictable!) |
