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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: niceguy767 who wrote (108163)	4/27/2000 10:56:00 PM
From: that_crazy_doug	Read Replies (2) of 1575864

<< Assume Q1 as base for Q2, Q3 and Q4...Q1 Athys of 1.2 million times 4 = 4.8 million...Mr. Sanders is projecting 12.8 million Athys in Y2000, that is 8 million (12.8 - 4.8) above the Q1 base rate...Assuming Athy ASP of $200 and 75% drop to bottom line, that adds additional before tax profits of $1.2 billion ($200 x .75 x 8 million) or $8.00/share...So in total before tax profit for Y2000 could approach $12.60 ((i.e 4 x 1.15 (base quarterly rate)= $4.60 plus $8.00 (incremental Athy revenues)) and that's assuming no increased contribution from flash growth! >> I don't think $200 is a reasonable ASP. You have to remember that by Q4 most of those Spry Athy's are going to be Durons and not Tbirds. Athy ASP will be the same as the overall ASP by Q4 (or darn close) and will be much closer to 100. Still, I have a price target of $300, and I don't think we'll need anywhere near $12 bucks a share to get there.

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