<< Why not an ASP of $200. Intel has been getting that before AMD started making inroads. Durons will be made exclusively in Fab 25 while Thunderbirds will be made in both Fab 25 and Fab 30. Mustangs and Corvettes will probably be made only in Fab 30. All three of the later will command higher prices, Thunderbird and Mustang for top flight performance, around 300 and 600 respectively, and Corvette for being a top end mobile, around 250. Durons probably will make up 30 to 40% max and have ASPs in the 100 range. This leads to an ASP of somewhere around 200 to 300. >>
Well I disagree with a few of your premises (though I like your premises more than mine ;)
1) I think Duron's will be substantially more than 30-40% of our chips. Right now K6s are about 80% of our sales, the Duron will replace that chip, and I don't see our high end sales going up that much in percentage. (though it'd certainly be great if it happened.)
2) I don't think Duron ASP is going to go over 100. Even though it's a substantially better chip, it still has to be priced to fit well into the value market.
3) Current Athlon ASP is about 238 from thread estimates, and I don't think Mustang/Corvette/Thunderbird will raise that ASP dramatically (I think it has some room to go up though), but even if the technology is better people will only pay a certain dollar amount for the best thing. Also we may not have the best thing later in the year anymore.
I sure hope we have ASP's of 200, but I think even if we can get an ASP of about 120-150 we'll be swimming in money.
<< Granted, this assumes no big price war with Intel. If AMD is in a price war, Intel will lose profitability and have a HUGE drop in their stock. The PE for AMD is much lower and thus will not get anywhere near the same hit, if any. >>
I agree if there is a price war that AMD is in a much better position to win. We can make more money on lower ASPs, and our PE is no where near as high so we don't need nearly as much money to justify our price. That's why I give AMD a price target of $300 even though I disagree with the $200 ASP. |
