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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: John Pitera who wrote (1429)	4/28/2000 1:04:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) of 33421

The Yield curve inversion grows,as does the likelihood of a 50 basis point rise in Fed Funds rate at the May meeting. The Euro has been close to .9000 today: -----The main talking point once again was centred on the euro which fell to a new record low at 0.9034. The move largely reflects ongoing US equity market strength resulting in a better bid dollar all round. Against the yen the dollar rose to a new high for the 2-week move up at 107.26 so breaking a former key reversal from April 11 targeting resistance at 107.80. The key is likely to pivot on US equities. S & P June futures are currently 7 points above fair value at 1,472 indicating a 52 ? 57 point higher open on the Dow...more------ --------ECB a slave to speculators: According and interview featured in today?s German press with the head of Germany?s DIW institute (one of the prominent government research institutes), the ECB is making itself ?a slave of currency speculators?. They say that if the ECB had seriously wanted to prop up the exchange rate they should have raised rates by more. More pointedly, they argue that the ECB is obliged to follow an inflation target and not protect the exchange rate. Curiously this point was made by the ECB in latest April inflation report - but that was written prior to the latest slide from 0.9630....more--- -------------------- On the Japanese economic data front : Japanese March unemployment remained steady at 4.9% - still at its record high - the number of employed persons fell 390k y/y or 0.6%. Miyazawa said that unemployment may rise further in the near term but welcomed the labour ministry?s plans to implement emergency measures aimed at boosting jobs. Meanwhile, Tokyo April CPI rose 0.2% m/m and fell 0.9% y/y whilst on a Nationwide basis prices rose 0.2% m/m and were down 0.5% on the year. Elsewhere, salaried workers household spending fell 4% m/m and was down 1.3% y/y but was up 0.7% q/q. The propensity to spend fell to 70.8% and salaried income fell 3.1% m/m and 3.5% on the year. Spending data was worse than the consensus expected and bodes poorly for a revival in private sector domestic demand.

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