Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: BigBull who wrote (65460)	4/28/2000 1:31:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Ivan Bullsky - crude's turn here is very positive ...but, we were getting awfully euphoric into a "red flag" that popped up (rising storage/API's and crude falling) imho. I was just "needling" you earlier ... for jumping back on the train just 50 feet from the next stop (V-VBG). I think we realize you probably didnt jump on CAM BJS SII - as your KEG on dips is a good buy - hope you did get the laggards, HOFF breathing again etc... If we continued to inch down on crude sub $25 with another .40 cents here, .70 cents there - given the storage numbers & recent API's - we were teetering on the verge of funds pulling cash out quickly and reversing to re-test 100 real quick-like imho... all it would of taken is another negative API surprise build and if crude inched toward $22-23 with $20 in the cross-hairs; ole' NOESIS and the Oil-Bears & Kudlowites would be getting the press... My point is there are potential rocks in the road - we are not yet quite at the downhill MO-MO run area yet - but, could be... That crude is turning is great. But - I am not so sure that the non-energy specialty fund managers are "true believers" yet in the sustainability of $23-$26ish crude and that is where the analyst models are. It will take the "non-believers" to become - "true believers" before we take off to the races imho; as the energy speciality funds are NOT going to chase the leaders here - thats yet another reason I like the laggards like PGO CXIPY etc. It's still a "sell resistance rally's & rotate to laggards" game untill this changes imho. The drillers could post some really dynamic earnings the next qtr , or two; that could be the catalyst to move us up thru 120-125 as resisitance; but we need strong OPEC compliance - API's to show a few draws & for storage to move back toward,or under 300M boe - then its off to the races again and I still think that once we get the "non-believers" to rotate and the OSX - especially the drillers become the latest "mo-mo" game - then we could see OSX 145-165 imho. Actually; a strong NASDQ rally thru say 4500 which may lead to some prudent profit taking - at about the traditional summer slowdown in tech; could set the table for a nice summer OSX rotation rally. The drillers will be reporting Q2 - E&P's will continue with strong cash flow & earnings and that could be the scenario we just take off on. For now; without crude clearly breaking out - we trade the range - OSX 120 is the wall and unless crude Oil does something really surprising; given earnings season is ending - I dont see how we break thru here... ? Laggards - PGO CXIPY both up nicely ahead of the OSX index today... PGO finally turned the corner - what makes PGO so sweet is it has 50% upside just re-tracing to its 2 x former high here - still has $30-35 analyst price targets - it and FLC are the "doubles" from here - CXIPY will see $80ish peak cycle as well and was a gift at $45ish here of late down from $60 with subsea - "plumbing" getting ready to breakout internationally for them... RRC - unbeeeeleeeeevaaaaaahble. Makes you wonder... Could first reserve's sales be pressuring this down this far - is there more to the story ? Worth small dips to add to the small cap basket, but as far as a Big Play - look at MDR... problems & high risk at this point in the cycle hold little attraction (read upside) for the institutional players... ...back to tech;it's a different world - 3 stocks up 10%ish today - took the margin profits off the table on VTSS GMST ATMI - but, the real NAZ bust out rally is yet to happen - its going to run to 4500ish imo shortly. Too much cash came out of the market and too much new cash has just come in - for Tech not to get another mo-mo push; as interest rate hikes are still coming hot & heavy - financials are dead, old economy is more interest sensitive - TECH is the only no -brainer... allthough ENERGY is going to be soon enough - I just see tech as superior here vs. energy for the time being...

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