Metsin6: making sense of the stock price.
Let me preface my remarks by disclosing I now have INTF as a minor part of my portfolio and I have not bought any recently. I do not have a serious stake in the company and have no interest in pumping it.
You asked good questions about why I believe the company was undervalued at $8 in an insane manner.
Part of the answer is that this latest correction drove MANy stocks much lower than rationality allows.
Part of the answer is the obvious fact that it is trading at double the lows at 17 7/8 just days later. Of course, this price can move up/down, but indicates the stock may have swung lower than it had to.
But, the major answer is that this is a stock/company in transition. The 52 week low is meaningless since it applies to a different company. I did not think any price below $15 or even $20 made any sense. I started buying at $14, way before the Killen report and the Reports by Concentric.
I agree the market knockdown makes any rational analysis hard. The company failed to support Concentric by making normal announcements and waited too long, period. And, I have not studied the earnings report, but due to the nature of when sales/payments are booked and to ongoing expenses, I would give them some leeway as long as the future growth looks promising.
As I have said, this is no longer a major holding and I am not buying much these days. So, I have no interest in doing serious study of the stock. My major concern is simple. I am paying down my margin position and this stock is not marginable. Thus, if the market turns down, I would feel tempted to sell it first, like last time, since it freed up more "margin" than other investments. This may have been a major factor in the steepness of the decline. Not really the fault of the company that it rose so fast that many refused to let it be on margin.
Again, I feel badly for those that held on too long or are still holding. Of course, the nice rise the last few days is good, except that those that sold too low are left out. |
