Bill, I have both IDC and QCOM. Reading the QCOM thread, I find they never mention IDC and offer many articles and links which discuss 3G, W-CDMA, and bald statements to the effect that QCOM wins no matter which 3 designs for w-cdma are chosen.
For instance, this post:
To: marginmike who wrote (71264)
From: LBstocks
Wednesday, Apr 26, 2000 9:53 PM ET
Respond to Post # 71267 of 71337
Mark Roberts' (First Union) report on QCOM:
KEY POINTS
-- The European market may be slowly opening to QUALCOMM. We believe
that the EU is going to relent and allow carriers to adopt any of the
3G technologies and not mandate only W-CDMA.
-- We believe that ETSI, the EU standard setting body has voted to
allow European carriers to adopt any of the proposed ITU 3G
technologies. We have not been able to confirm the decision or the
terms with ETSI.
-- QUALCOMM will probably receive royalties on W-CDMA anyway.
However, if carriers in Europe can opt to adopt any of the ITU 3G
modes it potentially could open the market for QUALCOMM to also sell
chips and accelerate the timing.
-- We reiterate our Strong Buy on the shares.
DETAILS
What has changed. We have multiple reports that ETSI (European
Telecommunications Standards Institute) has approved a resolution
endorsing all three modes of the ITU?s 3G standard. ETSI had
historically endorsed deployment of only W-CDMA in Europe. If we have
correct information, there are several implications:
-- ETSI has said previously that they would only allow European
carriers to use W-CDMA. We believe its position has been an attempt
to try to keep U.S. manufacturers out of Europe because Ericsson and
Nokia are thought to be ?ahead? in the development and deployment of
W-CDMA while QUALCOMM, Lucent and Motorola are thought to be ahead in
?CDMA 1X and 3X? technologies.
-- The ITU (International Telecommunications Union) is in the process
of adopting a single CDMA standard with three modes: direct sequence
(W-CDMA), multi-carrier (1X and 3X) and a TDD (time division duplex)
mode. QUALCOMM disproportionately benefits if carriers adopt a bias
toward 1X and 3X multi-carrier because it is already developing chips
for 1X and 3X (they essentially wrote the multi-carrier part of the
standard).
-- The U.S. government as well as a few global carriers like Vodafone
have been pressuring the EU to adopt the ITU standard so: 1) carriers
can have phones that work on networks everywhere in the world and, 2)
the U.S. government wants to open European markets to American
technology.
We suspect that ETSI may issue a press release on its new position
within the next few days.
Implications. We think QUALCOMM will get royalties from manufacturers
making W-CDMA or 1X and 3X technologies. However, by mandating W-CDMA
in Europe, we believe carriers were locked into a migration path from
GSM to GPRS, to EDGE (maybe), to W-CDMA. In this migration path we
doubt QUALCOMM would see any revenues out of Europe until maybe 2003-4
? royalties on W-CDMA. However, if ETSI is going to allow carriers in
Europe to adopt any of the ITU CDMA modes, carriers may decide to go
down a migration path from GSM, to 1X MC, to 3X MC. If so, QUALCOMM
is likely to have the opportunity to sell chips as well as get
royalties. Additionally, we believe the economics of 1X MC are at
least as good as the economics of EDGE ? perhaps better.
Consequently, if carriers begin to migrate toward 1X then both chipset
sales and royalties from Europe may accrue to QUALCOMM years faster
than most investors currently expect. The upshot is that QUALCOMM
could potentially realize chipset and/or royalty growth not previously
expected ? we have not factored into our models 1X or 3X in Europe.
What we don?t know are the specifics and when the details will be
released by ETSI.
We reiterate our Strong Buy on QUALCOMM shares.
Is this true? |
