MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 670.97

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Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (48569)	4/29/2000 11:27:00 AM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (1) of 99985

i am actually a long term bull, in spite of my frequent critical assessments of the current state of affairs. i just happen to think that many of the excesses that are currently present in the financial system will need to be shaken out before we can really move on to the next big upward cycle. i am specifically concerned about the amount of leverage and credit in the system, the current account, as well as the high valuations in the stock market. i think the fact that the economic expansion has gone on for so long has made the economy more vulnerable to shocks, not less. in a more cyclical environment credit excesses get corrected on a regular basis, whereas currently they have been allowed to build up unchecked. Good analysis Heinz... The opening up of the world markets has added a new dimension to the economic cycles... We have countries in different states of their economic cycles... This means that there are usually a number of countries where the economy is good regardless of what's happening elsewhere... A prime example is the Recession/Depression in Japan and Korea for a number of years... Despite this, the U.S. and European markets have enjoyed good growth... The global economy gives a broader balance of support to the world markets that don't just depend on the U.S. alone anymore... And the U.S. has more doors open to it for the sale of its goods and services... Add to this the increased productivity brought about by the speed at which voice and data communications travel, and you have businesses around the world working smarter and faster... In the end, this should help keep a lid on inflation... Jim

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