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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.765

-3.8%

3:21 PM EST

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To: Eric L who wrote (4481)	4/29/2000 12:40:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (2) of 34857

AT&T probably made a mistake when it didn't get serious about roaming earlier. The iDen phones with roaming features are already out. Nextel seems to be defying the odds by beating growth estimates even before the GSM-iDen dual models arrive. International roaming may be small now, but the target consumers are business people - it's the sweet spot of the mobile market. It's almost as if the US operators are intentionally isolating themselves from the world. AT&T's decision to spurn GPRS; Nextel's early decision to back iDen; Sprint announcing backing for cdma2000; Voicestream using GSM-1900 instead of GSM-1800. Some of these choices were forced on the operators, some were not. But the end result is an isolation that is perversely deepening, not alleviating, as we move forward. Even as Japan and Korea are falling into step with Europe, the American operators seem intent on heading into uncharted territories. Here's the nightmare scenario for the mobile internet in America in 2003: AT&T, Bellsouth and SBC employing EDGE, Sprint and Verizon using HDR, Nextel using god knows what, Voicestream with GPRS and perhaps EDGE. There is no sign that any of these operators is moving clearly ahead of the others in subscriber base. This would mean that no handset manufacturer would be able to design and produce high-volume models for America. The production runs for these handsets would be a tiny fraction of the GPRS and W-CDMA alternatives used by 100 other countries. Add to that the wireless Palm and MS PDAs and the two-way pagers. Consumer confusion about the choices and content delivered to wildly fractured mobile internet would seriously hamper the nationwide popularity of the whole market. Tero

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